Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI)
UFP Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures and markets wood and wood alternatives in North America, Europe, Asia and Australia. The company is headquartered in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.62% per annum.
- UFPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $128.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.29 (2.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.57% per annum.
- UFPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UFPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2022
End date: April 12, 2024
a = 3.2695
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0659
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0659) – 1
= 30.18%
September 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2695 + 0.0010 × 1,017 + 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(4.3709)
= $79.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2695 + 0.0010 × 1,017 – 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(4.1071)
= $60.77
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2695 + 0.0010 × 1,605 + 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(4.9315)
= $138.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2695 + 0.0010 × 1,605 – 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(4.6677)
= $106.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.62% per annum.
- UFPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $128.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.29 (2.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 14, 2023
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 4.5587
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0391
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0391) – 1
= 16.94%
November 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5587 + 0.0001 × 1,455 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.8150)
= $123.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5587 + 0.0001 × 1,455 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.6585)
= $105.48
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5587 + 0.0001 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.8526)
= $128.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5587 + 0.0001 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.6961)
= $109.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.57% per annum.
- UFPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.