Stock Price Trends

Under Armour Inc C (UA)

Under Armour, Inc. is an American sports equipment company that manufactures footwear, sports and casual apparel. Under Armour's global headquarters are located in Baltimore, Maryland.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.54% per annum.
  • UA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $8.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.54% per annum.
  • UA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -0.3935

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0585

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0585) – 1
= 26.38%

April 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3935 + 0.0014 × 1,598 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(1.9304)
= $6.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3935 + 0.0014 × 1,598 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(1.6963)
= $5.45

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3935 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(2.2452)
= $9.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3935 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(2.0111)
= $7.47

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.54% per annum.
  • UA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $8.57 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 28, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -1.8262

b = 0.0022

s = 0.0609

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 122.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0609) – 1
= 27.60%

June 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.8262 + 0.0022 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.0609)
= Exp(1.9819)
= $7.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.8262 + 0.0022 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.0609)
= Exp(1.7382)
= $5.69

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.8262 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0609)
= Exp(2.2975)
= $9.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.8262 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0609)
= Exp(2.0537)
= $7.80

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.54% per annum.
  • UA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.