Under Armour Inc C (UA)
Under Armour, Inc. is an American sports equipment company that manufactures footwear, sports and casual apparel. Under Armour's global headquarters are located in Baltimore, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.16% per annum.
- UA price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $7.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.00 (36.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.04% per annum.
- UA price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2021
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 3.8121
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1878
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1878) – 1
= 111.95%
February 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8121 + -0.0014 × 513 + 2 × 0.1878)
= Exp(3.4893)
= $32.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y354)
= Exp(a + b × X354 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8121 + -0.0014 × 513 – 2 × 0.1878)
= Exp(2.7381)
= $15.46
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8121 + -0.0014 × 1,526 + 2 × 0.1878)
= Exp(2.1103)
= $8.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8121 + -0.0014 × 1,526 – 2 × 0.1878)
= Exp(1.3591)
= $3.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.16% per annum.
- UA price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $7.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.00 (36.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 2.3822
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1189) – 1
= 60.93%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y671)
= Exp(a + b × X671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3822 + -0.0003 × 970 + 2 × 0.1189)
= Exp(2.3683)
= $10.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y671)
= Exp(a + b × X671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3822 + -0.0003 × 970 – 2 × 0.1189)
= Exp(1.8925)
= $6.64
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3822 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1189)
= Exp(2.1466)
= $8.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3822 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1189)
= Exp(1.6708)
= $5.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.04% per annum.
- UA price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.