Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM)
Columbia Sportswear Company designs, supplies, markets and distributes clothing, footwear, accessories and equipment for outdoor, active and day-to-day activities in the United States, Latin America, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Canada. The company is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.59% per annum.
- COLM price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $81.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.63% per annum.
- COLM price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COLM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 16, 2023
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 3.9451
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0374
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0374) – 1
= 16.13%
May 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,345 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9451 + 0.0003 × 1,345 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.3572)
= $78.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y928)
= Exp(a + b × X928 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,345 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9451 + 0.0003 × 1,345 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.2077)
= $67.20
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9451 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.4773)
= $88.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9451 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.3278)
= $75.78
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.59% per annum.
- COLM price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $81.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 7, 2024
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 5.0447
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0273
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0273) – 1
= 11.52%
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0447 + -0.0004 × 1,702 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.4698)
= $87.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0447 + -0.0004 × 1,702 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.3607)
= $78.32
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0447 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.4247)
= $83.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0447 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(4.3156)
= $74.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.63% per annum.
- COLM price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.