Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)
lululemon athletica inc. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $308.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $72.31 (30.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 162.36% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 27, 2023
End date: September 25, 2024
a = 10.2522
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0722
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0722) – 1
= 33.46%
November 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,009)
= Exp(a + b × X1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2522 + -0.0027 × 1,467 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(6.4336)
= $622.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,009)
= Exp(a + b × X1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2522 + -0.0027 × 1,467 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(6.1450)
= $466.37
September 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2522 + -0.0027 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(5.6151)
= $274.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2522 + -0.0027 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(5.3265)
= $205.71
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $308.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $72.31 (30.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 0.9359
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0350
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 162.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.01%
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9359 + 0.0026 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.5380)
= $254.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9359 + 0.0026 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.3981)
= $220.98
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9359 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.8313)
= $340.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9359 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.6914)
= $296.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 162.36% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.