Stock Price Trends

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

lululemon athletica inc. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 198.24% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $349.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $58.24 (14.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.93% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 25, 2024
End date: February 12, 2025

a = 0.6472

b = 0.0030

s = 0.0501

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 198.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.17%

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6472 + 0.0030 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.5433)
= $255.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6472 + 0.0030 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.3431)
= $209.16

February 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6472 + 0.0030 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(6.1481)
= $467.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6472 + 0.0030 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.9478)
= $382.93

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 198.24% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $349.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $58.24 (14.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 29, 2025
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 16.0227

b = -0.0056

s = 0.0192

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -86.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.98%

January 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0227 + -0.0056 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(6.0823)
= $438.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0227 + -0.0056 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(6.0056)
= $405.69

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0227 + -0.0056 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.8872)
= $360.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0227 + -0.0056 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.8105)
= $333.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.93% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.