Stock Price Trends

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

lululemon athletica inc. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 90.00% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $270.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.93% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 17.0169

b = -0.0063

s = 0.0478

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0063) – 1
= -90.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0478) – 1
= 21.09%

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0169 + -0.0063 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(6.1624)
= $474.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0169 + -0.0063 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(5.9710)
= $391.90

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0169 + -0.0063 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(5.6199)
= $275.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.0169 + -0.0063 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(5.4285)
= $227.82

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 90.00% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $270.64 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 4.8671

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0302

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.85%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8671 + 0.0004 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.6145)
= $274.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8671 + 0.0004 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.4936)
= $243.13

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8671 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.6225)
= $276.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8671 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.5016)
= $245.09

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.93% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.