Stock Price Trends

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

lululemon athletica inc. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.92% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $283.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 300.12% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $44.08 (13.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: March 21, 2025

a = 15.8672

b = -0.0056

s = 0.0266

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -86.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0266) – 1
= 11.23%

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8672 + -0.0056 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(6.1019)
= $446.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8672 + -0.0056 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.9955)
= $401.61

March 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8672 + -0.0056 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.8066)
= $332.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8672 + -0.0056 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.7002)
= $298.91

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.92% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $283.06 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2025
End date: March 27, 2025

a = -1.0975

b = 0.0038

s = 0.0226

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 300.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0226) – 1
= 9.45%

March 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0975 + 0.0038 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.8009)
= $330.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0975 + 0.0038 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.7106)
= $302.06

March 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0975 + 0.0038 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.8655)
= $352.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0975 + 0.0038 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.7752)
= $322.21

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 300.12% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $44.08 (13.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.