Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)
lululemon athletica inc. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.29% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $294.21 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $52.94 (21.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 78.73% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 8, 2023
End date: September 12, 2024
a = 10.8098
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0582) – 1
= 26.20%
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8098 + -0.0030 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(6.4184)
= $613.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8098 + -0.0030 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(6.1857)
= $485.77
September 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8098 + -0.0030 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.5872)
= $266.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8098 + -0.0030 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.3545)
= $211.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.29% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $294.21 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $52.94 (21.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 25, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024
a = 2.7214
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0342
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 78.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0342) – 1
= 14.68%
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7214 + 0.0016 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(5.5628)
= $260.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7214 + 0.0016 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(5.4258)
= $227.20
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7214 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(5.6948)
= $297.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7214 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(5.5579)
= $259.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 78.73% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.