Stock Price Trends

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

lululemon athletica inc. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.92% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $282.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.95% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: March 21, 2025

a = 15.8560

b = -0.0056

s = 0.0266

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -86.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0266) – 1
= 11.23%

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8560 + -0.0056 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(6.1019)
= $446.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8560 + -0.0056 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.9955)
= $401.61

March 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8560 + -0.0056 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.8066)
= $332.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8560 + -0.0056 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(5.7002)
= $298.91

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.92% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $282.75 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 19, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 28.4641

b = -0.0125

s = 0.0576

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0125) – 1
= -98.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0576) – 1
= 25.93%

March 19, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(28.4641 + -0.0125 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(5.9529)
= $384.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(28.4641 + -0.0125 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(5.7223)
= $305.61

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(28.4641 + -0.0125 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(5.7780)
= $323.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(28.4641 + -0.0125 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(5.5474)
= $256.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.95% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.