Stock Price Trends

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

lululemon athletica inc. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $308.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $72.31 (30.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 162.36% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 27, 2023
End date: September 25, 2024

a = 10.2522

b = -0.0027

s = 0.0722

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0722) – 1
= 33.46%

November 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,009)
= Exp(a + b × X1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2522 + -0.0027 × 1,467 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(6.4336)
= $622.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,009)
= Exp(a + b × X1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2522 + -0.0027 × 1,467 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(6.1450)
= $466.37

September 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2522 + -0.0027 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(5.6151)
= $274.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2522 + -0.0027 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(5.3265)
= $205.71

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.69% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $308.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $72.31 (30.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 0.9359

b = 0.0026

s = 0.0350

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 162.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.01%

August 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9359 + 0.0026 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.5380)
= $254.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9359 + 0.0026 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.3981)
= $220.98

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9359 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.8313)
= $340.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9359 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.6914)
= $296.31

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 162.36% per annum.
  • LULU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.