Ralph Lauren Corp Class A (RL)
Ralph Lauren Corporation is an American fashion company producing products ranging from the mid-range to the luxury segments. They are known for the clothing, marketing and distribution of products in four categories: apparel, home, accessories, and fragrances.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.36% per annum.
- RL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $202.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 179.44% per annum.
- RL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.64 (1.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.5118
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0873
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0873) – 1
= 41.78%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5118 + 0.0010 × 935 + 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(4.5911)
= $98.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5118 + 0.0010 × 935 – 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(4.2419)
= $69.54
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5118 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(5.4532)
= $233.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5118 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(5.1041)
= $164.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.36% per annum.
- RL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $202.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 0.2396
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0268
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 179.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.30%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2396 + 0.0028 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.1242)
= $168.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2396 + 0.0028 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.0172)
= $150.98
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2396 + 0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.4339)
= $229.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2396 + 0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.3269)
= $205.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 179.44% per annum.
- RL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.64 (1.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.