Oxford Industries Inc (OXM)
Oxford Industries, Inc., an apparel company, designs, supplies, markets and distributes lifestyle products and other brands globally. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.98% per annum.
- OXM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $74.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.55% per annum.
- OXM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OXM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 7.8702
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0392
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -50.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0392) – 1
= 16.99%
April 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8702 + -0.0020 × 1,615 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(4.7941)
= $120.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8702 + -0.0020 × 1,615 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(4.6372)
= $103.26
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8702 + -0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(4.3820)
= $80.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8702 + -0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(4.2251)
= $68.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.98% per annum.
- OXM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $74.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 3, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.9727
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0260
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0260) – 1
= 10.95%
October 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9727 + 0.0002 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(4.3790)
= $79.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9727 + 0.0002 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(4.2751)
= $71.89
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9727 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(4.3886)
= $80.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9727 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0260)
= Exp(4.2847)
= $72.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.55% per annum.
- OXM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.