G-III Apparel Group Ltd (GIII)
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. designs, supplies, and markets men's and women's apparel in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 118.62% per annum.
- GIII price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $28.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $22.09 (43.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.47% per annum.
- GIII price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.25 (0.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GIII price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2022
End date: March 1, 2024
a = 0.1691
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0786
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 118.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0786) – 1
= 36.93%
December 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1691 + 0.0021 × 1,106 + 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(2.6963)
= $14.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1691 + 0.0021 × 1,106 – 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(2.3820)
= $10.83
March 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1691 + 0.0021 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(3.6735)
= $39.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1691 + 0.0021 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(3.3592)
= $28.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 118.62% per annum.
- GIII price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $28.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $22.09 (43.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2023
End date: September 4, 2024
a = 4.3556
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0669
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0669) – 1
= 30.66%
November 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3556 + -0.0006 × 1,442 + 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(3.5842)
= $36.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3556 + -0.0006 × 1,442 – 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(3.3168)
= $27.57
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3556 + -0.0006 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(3.3915)
= $29.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3556 + -0.0006 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(3.1241)
= $22.74
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.47% per annum.
- GIII price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.25 (0.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.