Stock Price Trends

PVH Corp (PVH)

PVH Corp., formerly known as the Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation, is an American clothing company which owns brands such as Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, IZOD, Arrow, Warner's, Olga, True & Co., and Geoffrey Beene.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.83% per annum.
  • PVH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $98.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.80% per annum.
  • PVH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PVH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 7.1488

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0577

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0577) – 1
= 25.98%

February 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1488 + -0.0014 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.9996)
= $148.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1488 + -0.0014 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.7687)
= $117.76

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1488 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.6387)
= $103.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1488 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.4078)
= $82.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.83% per annum.
  • PVH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $98.70 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 3.4349

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0164

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0164) – 1
= 6.79%

September 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4349 + 0.0006 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.5888)
= $98.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4349 + 0.0006 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.5231)
= $92.12

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4349 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.6158)
= $101.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4349 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.5501)
= $94.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.80% per annum.
  • PVH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.