PVH Corp (PVH)
PVH Corp., formerly known as the Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation, is an American clothing company which owns brands such as Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, IZOD, Arrow, Warner's, Olga, True & Co., and Geoffrey Beene.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.83% per annum.
- PVH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $98.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.80% per annum.
- PVH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PVH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024
a = 7.1488
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0577
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0577) – 1
= 25.98%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1488 + -0.0014 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.9996)
= $148.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1488 + -0.0014 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.7687)
= $117.76
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1488 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.6387)
= $103.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1488 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.4078)
= $82.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.83% per annum.
- PVH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $98.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024
a = 3.4349
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0164
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0164) – 1
= 6.79%
September 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4349 + 0.0006 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.5888)
= $98.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4349 + 0.0006 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.5231)
= $92.12
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4349 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.6158)
= $101.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4349 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.5501)
= $94.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.80% per annum.
- PVH price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.