Stock Price Trends

PVH Corp (PVH)

PVH Corp., formerly known as the Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation, is an American clothing company which owns brands such as Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, IZOD, Arrow, Warner's, Olga, True & Co., and Geoffrey Beene.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.23% per annum.
  • PVH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $98.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.32% per annum.
  • PVH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PVH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 26, 2024
End date: November 1, 2024

a = 6.8292

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0590

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0590) – 1
= 26.62%

January 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,051)
= Exp(a + b × X1,051 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,528 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8292 + -0.0013 × 1,528 + 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(4.9978)
= $148.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,051)
= Exp(a + b × X1,051 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,528 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8292 + -0.0013 × 1,528 – 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(4.7618)
= $116.95

November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8292 + -0.0013 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(4.6406)
= $103.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8292 + -0.0013 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0590)
= Exp(4.4046)
= $81.82

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.23% per annum.
  • PVH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $98.66 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.0300

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0237

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0237) – 1
= 9.94%

September 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0300 + 0.0009 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.5969)
= $99.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0300 + 0.0009 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.5022)
= $90.21

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0300 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.6638)
= $106.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0300 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.5691)
= $96.45

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.32% per annum.
  • PVH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.