Stock Price Trends

Tapestry Inc (TPR)

Tapestry, Inc. is an American multinational luxury fashion holding company. It is based in New York City and is the parent company of three major brands: Coach New York, Kate Spade New York and Stuart Weitzman.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 337.04% per annum.
  • TPR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $70.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.17 (17.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.76% per annum.
  • TPR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 24, 2024
End date: March 5, 2025

a = -2.8212

b = 0.0040

s = 0.0519

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 337.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0519) – 1
= 23.05%

July 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8212 + 0.0040 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.6467)
= $38.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8212 + 0.0040 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.4393)
= $31.16

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8212 + 0.0040 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.5518)
= $94.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8212 + 0.0040 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.3444)
= $77.04

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 337.04% per annum.
  • TPR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $70.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.17 (17.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 12, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 13.9768

b = -0.0053

s = 0.0420

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.30%

February 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9768 + -0.0053 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.5661)
= $96.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9768 + -0.0053 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.3981)
= $81.30

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9768 + -0.0053 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.3151)
= $74.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9768 + -0.0053 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.1471)
= $63.25

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.76% per annum.
  • TPR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.