Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Tapestry, Inc. is an American multinational luxury fashion holding company. It is based in New York City and is the parent company of three major brands: Coach New York, Kate Spade New York and Stuart Weitzman.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.43% per annum.
- TPR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $55.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $28.14 (103.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.94% per annum.
- TPR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.89 (5.51%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: November 22, 2022
a = 3.8403
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0914
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0914) – 1
= 44.12%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8403 + -0.0004 × 412 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(3.8602)
= $47.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8403 + -0.0004 × 412 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(3.4948)
= $32.94
November 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,097 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8403 + -0.0004 × 1,097 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(3.5896)
= $36.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,097 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8403 + -0.0004 × 1,097 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(3.2242)
= $25.13
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.43% per annum.
- TPR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $55.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $28.14 (103.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.4800
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1429
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1429) – 1
= 77.12%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4800 + 0.0001 × 412 + 2 × 0.1429)
= Exp(3.8094)
= $45.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4800 + 0.0001 × 412 – 2 × 0.1429)
= Exp(3.2378)
= $25.48
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4800 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1429)
= Exp(3.9591)
= $52.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4800 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1429)
= Exp(3.3875)
= $29.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.94% per annum.
- TPR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.89 (5.51%).