Hexcel Corporation (HXL)
Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures and markets structural materials for use in the aerospace, space, and commercial and industrial defense markets. The company is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.05% per annum.
- HXL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $58.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.92% per annum.
- HXL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HXL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.5104
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0547
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0547) – 1
= 24.48%
January 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y802)
= Exp(a + b × X802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5104 + -0.0002 × 1,167 + 2 × 0.0547)
= Exp(4.3860)
= $80.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y802)
= Exp(a + b × X802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5104 + -0.0002 × 1,167 – 2 × 0.0547)
= Exp(4.1671)
= $64.53
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5104 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0547)
= Exp(4.2540)
= $70.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5104 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0547)
= Exp(4.0350)
= $56.55
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.05% per annum.
- HXL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $58.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 12, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.1986
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0415
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0415) – 1
= 18.04%
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1986 + -0.0006 × 1,483 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.3789)
= $79.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1986 + -0.0006 × 1,483 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.2130)
= $67.56
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1986 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.1701)
= $64.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1986 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.0042)
= $54.83
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.92% per annum.
- HXL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.