National Presto Industries Inc (NPK)
National Presto Industries Inc. provides household goods and small appliances, and defense and security products primarily in North America. The company is headquartered in Eau Claire, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.77% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $98.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.34 (1.38%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 254.21% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NPK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 10, 2022
End date: May 21, 2024
a = 3.7145
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0433
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0433) – 1
= 18.89%
May 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y576)
= Exp(a + b × X576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7145 + 0.0004 × 833 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.1549)
= $63.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y576)
= Exp(a + b × X576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7145 + 0.0004 × 833 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(3.9819)
= $53.62
May 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7145 + 0.0004 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.4701)
= $87.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7145 + 0.0004 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.2971)
= $73.48
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.77% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $98.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.34 (1.38%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 3, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = -1.6957
b = 0.0035
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 254.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.89%
October 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6957 + 0.0035 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.3031)
= $73.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6957 + 0.0035 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.1556)
= $63.79
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6957 + 0.0035 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.7050)
= $110.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6957 + 0.0035 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.5575)
= $95.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 254.21% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.