National Presto Industries Inc (NPK)
National Presto Industries Inc. provides household goods and small appliances, and defense and security products primarily in North America. The company is headquartered in Eau Claire, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.86% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $84.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.10% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NPK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2022
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 3.7842
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0640
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0640) – 1
= 29.19%
May 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y515)
= Exp(a + b × X515 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7842 + 0.0004 × 744 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.1947)
= $66.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y515)
= Exp(a + b × X515 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7842 + 0.0004 × 744 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(3.9386)
= $51.34
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7842 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.6046)
= $99.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7842 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.3485)
= $77.36
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.86% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $84.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 13, 2025
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 9.8019
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0286
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0286) – 1
= 12.11%
February 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8019 + -0.0030 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(4.6633)
= $105.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8019 + -0.0030 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(4.5490)
= $94.54
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8019 + -0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(4.4529)
= $85.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8019 + -0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(4.3386)
= $76.60
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.10% per annum.
- NPK price at the close of April 25, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.