Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) is an American multinational aerospace and defense technology company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.63% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $512.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $17.22 (3.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.37% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: July 29, 2024
a = 6.1294
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0533
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0533) – 1
= 23.75%
February 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y481)
= Exp(a + b × X481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1294 + 0.0000 × 698 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(6.2238)
= $504.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y481)
= Exp(a + b × X481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1294 + 0.0000 × 698 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(6.0106)
= $407.75
July 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1294 + 0.0000 × 1,580 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(6.2084)
= $496.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1294 + 0.0000 × 1,580 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.9953)
= $401.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.63% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $512.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $17.22 (3.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 13, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.8867
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0488
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0488) – 1
= 21.54%
January 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y702)
= Exp(a + b × X702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8867 + 0.0002 × 1,017 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(6.1562)
= $471.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y702)
= Exp(a + b × X702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8867 + 0.0002 × 1,017 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(5.9611)
= $388.03
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8867 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(6.2928)
= $540.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8867 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(6.0977)
= $444.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.37% per annum.
- NOC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.