AAR Corp (AIR)
AAR Corp. The company is headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.85% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $67.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.40 (0.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,142.32% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AIR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2024
End date: November 7, 2024
a = 5.5397
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0467
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0467) – 1
= 20.54%
April 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5397 + -0.0008 × 1,616 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(4.3682)
= $78.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5397 + -0.0008 × 1,616 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(4.1814)
= $65.46
November 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5397 + -0.0008 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(4.2133)
= $67.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5397 + -0.0008 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(4.0264)
= $56.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.85% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $67.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.40 (0.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -8.3725
b = 0.0069
s = 0.0325
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0069) – 1
= 1,142.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.90%
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.3725 + 0.0069 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.1455)
= $63.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.3725 + 0.0069 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.0153)
= $55.44
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.3725 + 0.0069 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.2974)
= $73.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-8.3725 + 0.0069 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.1672)
= $64.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,142.32% per annum.
- AIR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.