AeroVironment Inc (AVAV)
AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, supports and operates a portfolio of products and services for government agencies and businesses. The company is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.49% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $194.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 86.60% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVAV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.7734
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0910
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0910) – 1
= 43.88%
December 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7734 + 0.0014 × 1,112 + 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(4.5265)
= $92.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7734 + 0.0014 × 1,112 – 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(4.1627)
= $64.24
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7734 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(5.5353)
= $253.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7734 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(5.1715)
= $176.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.49% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $194.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 14, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.2915
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.66%
June 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y896)
= Exp(a + b × X896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2915 + 0.0017 × 1,302 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.6835)
= $108.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y896)
= Exp(a + b × X896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2915 + 0.0017 × 1,302 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.3495)
= $77.44
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2915 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.5791)
= $264.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2915 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.2450)
= $189.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 86.60% per annum.
- AVAV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.