Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW)
Curtiss-Wright Corporation designs, manufactures and repairs precision components and engineering products and services primarily for the aerospace, defense, general industrial and power generation markets worldwide.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.88% per annum.
- CW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $361.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 140.19% per annum.
- CW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.4594
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0424
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0424) – 1
= 18.49%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4594 + 0.0013 × 1,252 + 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.1753)
= $176.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y861)
= Exp(a + b × X861 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4594 + 0.0013 × 1,252 – 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.0056)
= $149.25
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4594 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.9231)
= $373.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4594 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.7534)
= $315.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.88% per annum.
- CW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $361.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 27, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.5397
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0307
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0307) – 1
= 13.07%
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5397 + 0.0024 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(5.6368)
= $280.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5397 + 0.0024 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(5.5140)
= $248.15
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5397 + 0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(5.9849)
= $397.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5397 + 0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(5.8621)
= $351.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 140.19% per annum.
- CW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.