General Dynamics Corporation (GD)
General Dynamics Corporation (GD) is an American aerospace and defense corporation. It is headquartered in Reston, Fairfax County, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.92% per annum.
- GD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $280.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $52.06 (15.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.07% per annum.
- GD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.20 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2023
End date: June 26, 2024
a = 3.9998
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0238
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0238) – 1
= 10.00%
April 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9998 + 0.0010 × 1,253 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.3211)
= $204.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9998 + 0.0010 × 1,253 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.2258)
= $186.00
June 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9998 + 0.0010 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.7551)
= $315.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9998 + 0.0010 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.6598)
= $287.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.92% per annum.
- GD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $280.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $52.06 (15.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: November 8, 2024
a = 5.1883
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0182
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0182) – 1
= 7.57%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1883 + 0.0003 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(5.6798)
= $292.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1883 + 0.0003 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(5.6068)
= $272.27
November 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1883 + 0.0003 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(5.7471)
= $313.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1883 + 0.0003 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(5.6741)
= $291.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.07% per annum.
- GD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.20 (3.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.