Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII)
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is the largest military shipbuilding company in the United States as well as a provider of professional services to partners in government and industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.22% per annum.
- HII price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $191.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.42 (17.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.99% per annum.
- HII price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.41 (5.62%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HII price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 23, 2020
End date: October 22, 2024
a = 4.9458
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0841
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0841) – 1
= 39.98%
June 23, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y147)
= Exp(a + b × X147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9458 + 0.0004 × 216 + 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(5.1926)
= $179.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y147)
= Exp(a + b × X147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9458 + 0.0004 × 216 – 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(4.8562)
= $128.54
October 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9458 + 0.0004 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(5.7687)
= $320.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9458 + 0.0004 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(5.4324)
= $228.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.22% per annum.
- HII price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $191.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.42 (17.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.6443
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0763
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0763) – 1
= 35.68%
February 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6443 + -0.0006 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.8030)
= $331.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6443 + -0.0006 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.4979)
= $244.18
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6443 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.6184)
= $275.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6443 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.3133)
= $203.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.99% per annum.
- HII price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.41 (5.62%).