Welltower Inc (WELL)
Welltower Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in healthcare infrastructure.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 100.93% per annum.
- WELL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $137.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.92% per annum.
- WELL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WELL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 22, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.4417
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0235
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 100.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0235) – 1
= 9.87%
March 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4417 + 0.0019 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.5151)
= $91.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4417 + 0.0019 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.4210)
= $83.18
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4417 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.9797)
= $145.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4417 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.8856)
= $132.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 100.93% per annum.
- WELL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $137.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.6270
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0201
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 57.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0201) – 1
= 8.38%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6270 + 0.0013 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.8567)
= $128.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6270 + 0.0013 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.7763)
= $118.66
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6270 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.9531)
= $141.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6270 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.8727)
= $130.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.92% per annum.
- WELL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.