Stock Price Trends

Welltower Inc (WELL)

Welltower Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in healthcare infrastructure.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 100.93% per annum.
  • WELL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $137.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.92% per annum.
  • WELL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WELL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 22, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.4417

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0235

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 100.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0235) – 1
= 9.87%

March 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4417 + 0.0019 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.5151)
= $91.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4417 + 0.0019 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.4210)
= $83.18

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4417 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.9797)
= $145.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4417 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.8856)
= $132.37

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 100.93% per annum.
  • WELL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $137.40 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.6270

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0201

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 57.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0201) – 1
= 8.38%

September 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6270 + 0.0013 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.8567)
= $128.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6270 + 0.0013 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.7763)
= $118.66

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6270 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.9531)
= $141.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6270 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.8727)
= $130.67

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.92% per annum.
  • WELL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.