Ventas Inc (VTR)
Ventas, Inc. is a real estate investment trust specializing in the ownership and management of health care facilities in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 118.84% per annum.
- VTR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $64.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.84 (2.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.26% per annum.
- VTR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: October 31, 2024
a = 0.3330
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0301
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 118.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0301) – 1
= 12.78%
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3330 + 0.0021 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(3.7384)
= $42.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3330 + 0.0021 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(3.6181)
= $37.27
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3330 + 0.0021 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(4.2705)
= $71.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3330 + 0.0021 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(4.1502)
= $63.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 118.84% per annum.
- VTR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $64.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.84 (2.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.4621
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0163
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0163) – 1
= 6.75%
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4621 + 0.0004 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.1735)
= $64.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4621 + 0.0004 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.1082)
= $60.84
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4621 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.2050)
= $67.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4621 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(4.1397)
= $62.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.26% per annum.
- VTR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.