Medical Properties Trust Inc (MPW)
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. is a self-advised real estate investment trust formed in 2003 to acquire and develop net-leased hospital facilities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.30% per annum.
- MPW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $4.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.74 (20.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 105.52% per annum.
- MPW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.68 (13.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2021
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.1643
b = -0.0018
s = 0.1591
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1591) – 1
= 88.94%
September 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y448)
= Exp(a + b × X448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1643 + -0.0018 × 651 + 2 × 0.1591)
= Exp(3.3399)
= $28.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y448)
= Exp(a + b × X448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1643 + -0.0018 × 651 – 2 × 0.1591)
= Exp(2.7036)
= $14.93
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1643 + -0.0018 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.1591)
= Exp(1.6199)
= $5.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1643 + -0.0018 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.1591)
= Exp(0.9836)
= $2.67
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.30% per annum.
- MPW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $4.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.74 (20.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 5, 2024
End date: October 10, 2024
a = -1.7909
b = 0.0020
s = 0.1008
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 105.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1008) – 1
= 49.63%
January 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7909 + 0.0020 × 1,507 + 2 × 0.1008)
= Exp(1.3848)
= $3.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7909 + 0.0020 × 1,507 – 2 × 0.1008)
= Exp(0.9818)
= $2.67
October 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7909 + 0.0020 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.1008)
= Exp(1.9355)
= $6.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7909 + 0.0020 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.1008)
= Exp(1.5325)
= $4.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 105.52% per annum.
- MPW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.68 (13.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.