Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT)
Universal Health Realty Income Trust, a real estate investment trust, invests in healthcare and human service related facilities including intensive care hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, subacute care facilities, medical / office buildings, emergency departments independent and child care centers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.53% per annum.
- UHT price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $39.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.74% per annum.
- UHT price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.77 (1.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UHT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: December 17, 2024
a = 3.1350
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0717
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0717) – 1
= 33.24%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1350 + 0.0003 × 1,332 + 2 × 0.0717)
= Exp(3.7091)
= $40.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1350 + 0.0003 × 1,332 – 2 × 0.0717)
= Exp(3.4222)
= $30.64
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1350 + 0.0003 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0717)
= Exp(3.8556)
= $47.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1350 + 0.0003 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0717)
= Exp(3.5686)
= $35.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.53% per annum.
- UHT price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $39.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2024
End date: January 23, 2025
a = 6.0444
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0314
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0314) – 1
= 13.39%
August 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0444 + -0.0013 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(3.8627)
= $47.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0444 + -0.0013 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(3.7370)
= $41.97
January 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0444 + -0.0013 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(3.6613)
= $38.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0444 + -0.0013 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(3.5356)
= $34.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.74% per annum.
- UHT price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.77 (1.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.