CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)
CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a publicly traded, self-managed real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership, acquisition, development, and leasing of skilled nursing, senior housing, and other healthcare-related properties.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.83% per annum.
- CTRE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $31.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 67.72% per annum.
- CTRE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CTRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.6527
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0432
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0432) – 1
= 18.88%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6527 + 0.0010 × 1,206 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(2.8938)
= $18.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6527 + 0.0010 × 1,206 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(2.7208)
= $15.19
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6527 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.4874)
= $32.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6527 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.3144)
= $27.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.83% per annum.
- CTRE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $31.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 17, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.8771
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0289
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0289) – 1
= 12.26%
January 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8771 + 0.0014 × 1,519 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(3.0871)
= $21.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8771 + 0.0014 × 1,519 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(2.9714)
= $19.52
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8771 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(3.5220)
= $33.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8771 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(3.4064)
= $30.16
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 67.72% per annum.
- CTRE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.