Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc (SBRA)
As of September 30, 2020, Sabra's investment portfolio included 425 real estate properties held for investment (consisting of (i) 287 skilled nursing / transitional care facilities, (ii) 64 senior housing communities (?
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.63% per annum.
- SBRA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $17.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.23 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.80% per annum.
- SBRA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.42 (2.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBRA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2023
End date: January 3, 2025
a = 1.1751
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0559
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0559) – 1
= 25.07%
February 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y730)
= Exp(a + b × X730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1751 + 0.0010 × 1,059 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(2.3373)
= $10.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y730)
= Exp(a + b × X730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1751 + 0.0010 × 1,059 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(2.1136)
= $8.28
January 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1751 + 0.0010 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.0108)
= $20.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1751 + 0.0010 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(2.7871)
= $16.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.63% per annum.
- SBRA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $17.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.23 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 12, 2024
End date: March 13, 2025
a = 4.0070
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.40%
September 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0070 + -0.0007 × 1,625 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.9707)
= $19.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0070 + -0.0007 × 1,625 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.8539)
= $17.35
March 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0070 + -0.0007 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.8481)
= $17.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0070 + -0.0007 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.7312)
= $15.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.80% per annum.
- SBRA price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.42 (2.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.