Stock Price Trends

Sabra Healthcare REIT Inc (SBRA)

As of September 30, 2020, Sabra's investment portfolio included 425 real estate properties held for investment (consisting of (i) 287 skilled nursing / transitional care facilities, (ii) 64 senior housing communities (?

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.15% per annum.
  • SBRA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 99.91% per annum.
  • SBRA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBRA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 1.0173

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0552

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.71%

March 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0173 + 0.0010 × 1,203 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.3557)
= $10.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0173 + 0.0010 × 1,203 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.1349)
= $8.46

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0173 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.9917)
= $19.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0173 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.7708)
= $15.97

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.15% per annum.
  • SBRA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.57 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -0.4982

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0292

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 99.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.38%

April 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4982 + 0.0019 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.6024)
= $13.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4982 + 0.0019 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.4857)
= $12.01

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4982 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.0257)
= $20.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4982 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.9089)
= $18.34

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 99.91% per annum.
  • SBRA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.