Omega Healthcare Investors Inc (OHI)
Omega is a real estate investment trust that invests in the long-term healthcare industry, primarily skilled nursing and assisted living facilities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 124.36% per annum.
- OHI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $40.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.63 (8.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.91% per annum.
- OHI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OHI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: October 1, 2024
a = -0.2243
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0195
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 124.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0195) – 1
= 8.13%
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2243 + 0.0022 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(3.3637)
= $28.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2243 + 0.0022 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(3.2855)
= $26.72
October 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2243 + 0.0022 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(3.7489)
= $42.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2243 + 0.0022 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(3.6707)
= $39.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 124.36% per annum.
- OHI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $40.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.63 (8.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.7183
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0168
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0168) – 1
= 6.95%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7183 + 0.0005 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(3.6954)
= $40.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7183 + 0.0005 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(3.6282)
= $37.65
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7183 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(3.7431)
= $42.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7183 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(3.6760)
= $39.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.91% per annum.
- OHI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.