LTC Properties Inc (LTC)
LTC is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in senior housing and healthcare properties primarily through back-lease sales, mortgage financing, joint ventures, and structured finance solutions including preferred equity and mezzanine loans. .
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.91% per annum.
- LTC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $38.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 166.16% per annum.
- LTC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 17, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.0728
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.40%
January 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0728 + 0.0009 × 1,519 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.4296)
= $30.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0728 + 0.0009 × 1,519 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.3307)
= $27.96
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0728 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.6939)
= $40.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0728 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(3.5949)
= $36.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.91% per annum.
- LTC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $38.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -1.2275
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0201
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 166.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0201) – 1
= 8.37%
October 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2275 + 0.0027 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.5974)
= $36.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2275 + 0.0027 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.5170)
= $33.68
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2275 + 0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.7101)
= $40.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2275 + 0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(3.6297)
= $37.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 166.16% per annum.
- LTC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.