Vital Energy Inc. (VTLE)
Vital Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the United States. The company is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.81% per annum.
- VTLE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $20.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.98 (8.95%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.37% per annum.
- VTLE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VTLE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2021
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 4.8464
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1630
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1630) – 1
= 91.94%
September 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8464 + -0.0008 × 531 + 2 × 0.1630)
= Exp(4.7575)
= $116.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y366)
= Exp(a + b × X366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8464 + -0.0008 × 531 – 2 × 0.1630)
= Exp(4.1055)
= $60.68
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8464 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1630)
= Exp(3.7464)
= $42.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8464 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1630)
= Exp(3.0945)
= $22.08
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.81% per annum.
- VTLE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $20.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.98 (8.95%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 6.9825
b = -0.0021
s = 0.1331
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1331) – 1
= 70.31%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9825 + -0.0021 × 1,426 + 2 × 0.1331)
= Exp(4.2684)
= $71.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9825 + -0.0021 × 1,426 – 2 × 0.1331)
= Exp(3.7359)
= $41.93
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9825 + -0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1331)
= Exp(3.4345)
= $31.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9825 + -0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1331)
= Exp(2.9020)
= $18.21
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.37% per annum.
- VTLE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.