APA Corporation (APA)
APA Corporation is the holding company for Apache Corporation, a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is organized in Delaware and headquartered in Houston.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.72% per annum.
- APA price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $22.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.27% per annum.
- APA price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2023
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 5.2288
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0628
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0628) – 1
= 28.58%
July 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,337 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2288 + -0.0011 × 1,337 + 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(3.8478)
= $46.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,337 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2288 + -0.0011 × 1,337 – 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(3.5964)
= $36.47
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2288 + -0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(3.2990)
= $27.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2288 + -0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(3.0476)
= $21.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.72% per annum.
- APA price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $22.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 7.5865
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0475
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0475) – 1
= 20.93%
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5865 + -0.0025 × 1,691 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(3.5204)
= $33.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5865 + -0.0025 × 1,691 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(3.3304)
= $27.95
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5865 + -0.0025 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(3.1931)
= $24.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5865 + -0.0025 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(3.0031)
= $20.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.27% per annum.
- APA price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.