APA Corporation (APA)
APA Corporation is the holding company for Apache Corporation, a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is organized in Delaware and headquartered in Houston.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.78% per annum.
- APA price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $21.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 557.04% per annum.
- APA price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2023
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 5.0760
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0633
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0633) – 1
= 28.80%
July 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0760 + -0.0011 × 1,208 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.8381)
= $46.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0760 + -0.0011 × 1,208 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.5850)
= $36.05
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0760 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.1412)
= $23.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0760 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(2.8881)
= $17.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.78% per annum.
- APA price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $21.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2025
End date: April 1, 2025
a = -6.3420
b = 0.0052
s = 0.0143
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0052) – 1
= 557.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0143) – 1
= 5.88%
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.3420 + 0.0052 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(2.9498)
= $19.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.3420 + 0.0052 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(2.8927)
= $18.04
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.3420 + 0.0052 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(3.0994)
= $22.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.3420 + 0.0052 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(3.0423)
= $20.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 557.04% per annum.
- APA price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.