Stock Price Trends

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

Occidental Petroleum Corporation is an American company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the United States, the Middle East, and Colombia as well as petrochemical manufacturing in the United States, Canada, and Chile.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.86% per annum.
  • OXY price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $50.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.97% per annum.
  • OXY price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OXY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 4, 2022
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 4.2843

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0684

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0684) – 1
= 31.47%

May 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y609)
= Exp(a + b × X609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2843 + -0.0001 × 883 + 2 × 0.0684)
= Exp(4.3007)
= $73.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y609)
= Exp(a + b × X609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2843 + -0.0001 × 883 – 2 × 0.0684)
= Exp(4.0271)
= $56.10

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2843 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0684)
= Exp(4.1721)
= $64.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2843 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0684)
= Exp(3.8985)
= $49.33

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.86% per annum.
  • OXY price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $50.42 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 1, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 6.2842

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0302

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.86%

April 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2842 + -0.0013 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.2760)
= $71.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2842 + -0.0013 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.1550)
= $63.75

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2842 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(3.9554)
= $52.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2842 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(3.8344)
= $46.27

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.97% per annum.
  • OXY price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.