Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.53% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $129.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.68% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHRD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 7.3407
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0439
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0439) – 1
= 19.21%
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3407 + -0.0017 × 1,230 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(5.3191)
= $204.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3407 + -0.0017 × 1,230 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(5.1434)
= $171.29
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3407 + -0.0017 × 1,461 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.9229)
= $137.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3407 + -0.0017 × 1,461 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.7472)
= $115.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.53% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $129.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.9821
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0212
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0212) – 1
= 8.85%
September 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y951)
= Exp(a + b × X951 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9821 + -0.0008 × 1,385 + 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(4.9490)
= $141.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y951)
= Exp(a + b × X951 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9821 + -0.0008 × 1,385 – 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(4.8642)
= $129.56
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9821 + -0.0008 × 1,461 + 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(4.8900)
= $132.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9821 + -0.0008 × 1,461 – 2 × 0.0212)
= Exp(4.8052)
= $122.14
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.68% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.