Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.31% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $112.63 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.86 (0.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 624.52% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.63 (1.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHRD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2024
End date: March 21, 2025
a = 7.1020
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0456
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0456) – 1
= 20.01%
March 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y841)
= Exp(a + b × X841 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1020 + -0.0016 × 1,224 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.2901)
= $198.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y841)
= Exp(a + b × X841 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1020 + -0.0016 × 1,224 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.1077)
= $165.30
March 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1020 + -0.0016 × 1,582 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.7335)
= $113.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1020 + -0.0016 × 1,582 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.5511)
= $94.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.31% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $112.63 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.86 (0.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2025
End date: March 27, 2025
a = -3.8809
b = 0.0054
s = 0.0118
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0054) – 1
= 624.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0118) – 1
= 4.83%
March 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8809 + 0.0054 × 1,565 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.6338)
= $102.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8809 + 0.0054 × 1,565 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.5866)
= $98.16
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8809 + 0.0054 × 1,588 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.7585)
= $116.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8809 + 0.0054 × 1,588 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.7114)
= $111.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 624.52% per annum.
- CHRD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.63 (1.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.