ConocoPhillips (COP)
ConocoPhillips is an American multinational corporation engaged in hydrocarbon exploration. It is based in the Energy Corridor district of Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.84% per annum.
- COP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $113.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.48% per annum.
- COP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.04 (0.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.5433
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0723
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0723) – 1
= 33.56%
August 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y689)
= Exp(a + b × X689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5433 + 0.0001 × 1,001 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.7914)
= $120.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y689)
= Exp(a + b × X689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5433 + 0.0001 × 1,001 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.5020)
= $90.20
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5433 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.8767)
= $131.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5433 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.5873)
= $98.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.84% per annum.
- COP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $113.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.9156
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0401
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0401) – 1
= 17.40%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9156 + -0.0007 × 1,580 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.8936)
= $133.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9156 + -0.0007 × 1,580 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.7332)
= $113.66
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9156 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.7220)
= $112.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9156 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.5616)
= $95.74
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.48% per annum.
- COP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.04 (0.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.