Antero Resources Corp (AR)
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores, develops, and produces natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil properties in the United States. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.43% per annum.
- AR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $33.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.27% per annum.
- AR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.6785
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1755
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1755) – 1
= 101.80%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6785 + -0.0002 × 834 + 2 × 0.1755)
= Exp(3.8282)
= $45.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y574)
= Exp(a + b × X574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6785 + -0.0002 × 834 – 2 × 0.1755)
= Exp(3.1261)
= $22.79
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6785 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1755)
= Exp(3.5890)
= $36.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6785 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1755)
= Exp(2.8869)
= $17.94
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.43% per annum.
- AR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $33.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.4998
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1120
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1120) – 1
= 56.54%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4998 + 0.0005 × 1,204 + 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(3.3327)
= $28.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4998 + 0.0005 × 1,204 – 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(2.8845)
= $17.90
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4998 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(3.6472)
= $38.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4998 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1120)
= Exp(3.1991)
= $24.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.27% per annum.
- AR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.