Comstock Resources Inc (CRK)
Comstock Resources, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas primarily in Texas, Louisiana, and North Dakota. The company is headquartered in Frisco, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.73% per annum.
- CRK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $15.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.40 (56.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.26% per annum.
- CRK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.39 (2.64%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 29, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.5879
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1492
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1492) – 1
= 81.65%
March 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y591)
= Exp(a + b × X591 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 859 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5879 + -0.0009 × 859 + 2 × 0.1492)
= Exp(3.1220)
= $22.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y591)
= Exp(a + b × X591 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 859 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5879 + -0.0009 × 859 – 2 × 0.1492)
= Exp(2.5251)
= $12.49
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5879 + -0.0009 × 1,632 + 2 × 0.1492)
= Exp(2.4341)
= $11.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5879 + -0.0009 × 1,632 – 2 × 0.1492)
= Exp(1.8372)
= $6.28
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.73% per annum.
- CRK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $15.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.40 (56.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 0.3304
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0916
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0916) – 1
= 44.24%
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,016)
= Exp(a + b × X1,016 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3304 + 0.0012 × 1,476 + 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(2.2664)
= $9.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,016)
= Exp(a + b × X1,016 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3304 + 0.0012 × 1,476 – 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(1.9001)
= $6.69
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3304 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(2.6820)
= $14.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3304 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(2.3157)
= $10.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.26% per annum.
- CRK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.39 (2.64%).