Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2,112.99% per annum.
- CRGY price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $16.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,568.85% per annum.
- CRGY price at the close of January 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.01 (0.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRGY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025
a = -6.8121
b = 0.0085
s = 0.0115
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0085) – 1
= 2,112.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0115) – 1
= 4.69%
December 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y761)
= Exp(a + b × X761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8121 + 0.0085 × 1,106 + 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(2.5950)
= $13.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y761)
= Exp(a + b × X761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8121 + 0.0085 × 1,106 – 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(2.5491)
= $12.80
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y780)
= Exp(a + b × X780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,136 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8121 + 0.0085 × 1,136 + 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(2.8495)
= $17.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y780)
= Exp(a + b × X780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,136 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8121 + 0.0085 × 1,136 – 2 × 0.0115)
= Exp(2.8037)
= $16.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2,112.99% per annum.
- CRGY price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $16.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 26, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025
a = -7.3912
b = 0.0090
s = 0.0096
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0090) – 1
= 2,568.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0096) – 1
= 3.90%
December 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,114 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3912 + 0.0090 × 1,114 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(2.6516)
= $14.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,114 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3912 + 0.0090 × 1,114 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(2.6133)
= $13.64
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y780)
= Exp(a + b × X780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,136 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3912 + 0.0090 × 1,136 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(2.8496)
= $17.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y780)
= Exp(a + b × X780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,136 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3912 + 0.0090 × 1,136 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(2.8113)
= $16.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,568.85% per annum.
- CRGY price at the close of January 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.01 (0.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.