Stock Price Trends

Crescent Energy Co (CRGY)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 94.39% per annum.
  • CRGY price at the close of April 15, 2025 was $7.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.98% per annum.
  • CRGY price at the close of April 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRGY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 13, 2025
End date: April 15, 2025

a = 11.8081

b = -0.0079

s = 0.0912

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0079) – 1
= -94.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0912) – 1
= 44.00%

January 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y776)
= Exp(a + b × X776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8081 + -0.0079 × 1,132 + 2 × 0.0912)
= Exp(3.0580)
= $21.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y776)
= Exp(a + b × X776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8081 + -0.0079 × 1,132 – 2 × 0.0912)
= Exp(2.6933)
= $14.78

April 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8081 + -0.0079 × 1,224 + 2 × 0.0912)
= Exp(2.3320)
= $10.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8081 + -0.0079 × 1,224 – 2 × 0.0912)
= Exp(1.9674)
= $7.15

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 94.39% per annum.
  • CRGY price at the close of April 15, 2025 was $7.76 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 24, 2025
End date: April 15, 2025

a = 31.3149

b = -0.0240

s = 0.0902

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0240) – 1
= -99.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0902) – 1
= 43.45%

March 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y824)
= Exp(a + b × X824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(31.3149 + -0.0240 × 1,202 + 2 × 0.0902)
= Exp(2.6703)
= $14.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y824)
= Exp(a + b × X824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(31.3149 + -0.0240 × 1,202 – 2 × 0.0902)
= Exp(2.3094)
= $10.07

April 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(31.3149 + -0.0240 × 1,224 + 2 × 0.0902)
= Exp(2.1427)
= $8.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(31.3149 + -0.0240 × 1,224 – 2 × 0.0902)
= Exp(1.7819)
= $5.94

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.98% per annum.
  • CRGY price at the close of April 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.