Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)
Devon Energy Corporation is an American energy company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the American market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.09% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $39.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.87% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 18, 2022
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 4.4116
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0957
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0957) – 1
= 46.66%
March 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 844 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4116 + -0.0004 × 844 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(4.2787)
= $72.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y582)
= Exp(a + b × X582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 844 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4116 + -0.0004 × 844 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.8958)
= $49.19
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4116 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.9021)
= $49.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4116 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0957)
= Exp(3.5191)
= $33.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.09% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $39.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 6.0220
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0294
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0294) – 1
= 12.47%
April 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0220 + -0.0013 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(4.0091)
= $55.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0220 + -0.0013 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.8916)
= $48.99
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0220 + -0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.7027)
= $40.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0220 + -0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.5852)
= $36.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.87% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.