Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)
Devon Energy Corporation is an American energy company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the American market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.14% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $37.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.38% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.30 (3.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2022
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 4.4184
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0979
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -15.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0979) – 1
= 47.93%
March 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y495)
= Exp(a + b × X495 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4184 + -0.0004 × 718 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(4.2912)
= $73.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y495)
= Exp(a + b × X495 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4184 + -0.0004 × 718 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.8996)
= $49.38
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4184 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.7933)
= $44.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4184 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.4017)
= $30.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.14% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $37.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 27, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 5.6664
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0540
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0540) – 1
= 24.11%
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6664 + -0.0012 × 1,455 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(4.0337)
= $56.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6664 + -0.0012 × 1,455 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(3.8178)
= $45.50
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6664 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(3.5911)
= $36.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6664 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(3.3751)
= $29.23
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.38% per annum.
- DVN price at the close of April 1, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.30 (3.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.