Stock Price Trends

Permian Resources Corporation (PR)

Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and related liquid-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.36% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $13.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 103.73% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 4.6403

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0380

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.43%

March 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6403 + -0.0011 × 1,615 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.9206)
= $18.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6403 + -0.0011 × 1,615 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.7685)
= $15.94

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6403 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.6860)
= $14.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6403 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.5339)
= $12.60

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.36% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $13.98 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024

a = -0.8932

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0275

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 103.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.63%

September 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8932 + 0.0019 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.6400)
= $14.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8932 + 0.0019 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.5299)
= $12.55

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8932 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.7219)
= $15.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8932 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.6118)
= $13.62

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 103.73% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.