Permian Resources Corporation (PR)
Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and related liquid-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.36% per annum.
- PR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $13.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 103.73% per annum.
- PR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024
a = 4.6403
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.43%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6403 + -0.0011 × 1,615 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.9206)
= $18.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6403 + -0.0011 × 1,615 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.7685)
= $15.94
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6403 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.6860)
= $14.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6403 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.5339)
= $12.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.36% per annum.
- PR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $13.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024
a = -0.8932
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0275
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 103.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.63%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8932 + 0.0019 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.6400)
= $14.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8932 + 0.0019 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.5299)
= $12.55
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8932 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.7219)
= $15.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8932 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.6118)
= $13.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 103.73% per annum.
- PR price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.