Stock Price Trends

Permian Resources Corporation (PR)

Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and related liquid-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.42% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $13.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.11% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2021
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 1.2825

b = 0.0009

s = 0.1413

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1413) – 1
= 75.96%

May 24, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2825 + 0.0009 × 417 + 2 × 0.1413)
= Exp(1.9282)
= $6.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2825 + 0.0009 × 417 – 2 × 0.1413)
= Exp(1.3631)
= $3.91

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2825 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1413)
= Exp(3.1545)
= $23.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2825 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1413)
= Exp(2.5894)
= $13.32

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.42% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $13.80 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 3.3110

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0591

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0591) – 1
= 26.68%

February 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3110 + -0.0004 × 1,428 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(2.8796)
= $17.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3110 + -0.0004 × 1,428 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(2.6431)
= $14.06

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3110 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(2.7268)
= $15.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3110 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(2.4903)
= $12.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.11% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.