Stock Price Trends

Permian Resources Corporation (PR)

Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and related liquid-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.71% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $15.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.60% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.63 (4.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 21, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.0932

b = 0.0010

s = 0.1324

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1324) – 1
= 69.85%

May 21, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y376)
= Exp(a + b × X376 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0932 + 0.0010 × 547 + 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(1.8805)
= $6.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y376)
= Exp(a + b × X376 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0932 + 0.0010 × 547 – 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(1.3508)
= $3.86

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0932 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(3.1021)
= $22.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0932 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(2.5724)
= $13.10

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.71% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $15.46 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 14, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.1510

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0465

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0465) – 1
= 20.44%

March 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1510 + -0.0008 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(2.9093)
= $18.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1510 + -0.0008 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(2.7233)
= $15.23

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1510 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(2.6966)
= $14.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1510 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(2.5106)
= $12.31

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.60% per annum.
  • PR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.63 (4.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.