Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)
Diamondback Energy is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.95% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $185.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.07% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FANG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 4, 2021
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 4.1220
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0881
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0881) – 1
= 42.27%
October 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y467)
= Exp(a + b × X467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1220 + 0.0006 × 679 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.7275)
= $113.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y467)
= Exp(a + b × X467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1220 + 0.0006 × 679 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.3749)
= $79.43
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1220 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(5.4513)
= $233.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1220 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(5.0988)
= $163.82
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.95% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $185.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 27, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 6.0097
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0363
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -15.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0363) – 1
= 15.62%
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0097 + -0.0004 × 1,584 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.3731)
= $215.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0097 + -0.0004 × 1,584 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.2280)
= $186.42
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0097 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.2657)
= $193.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0097 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.1206)
= $167.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.07% per annum.
- FANG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.