Stock Price Trends

Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)

Diamondback Energy is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and headquartered in Midland, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.95% per annum.
  • FANG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $185.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.07% per annum.
  • FANG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FANG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 4, 2021
End date: November 22, 2024

a = 4.1220

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0881

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0881) – 1
= 42.27%

October 4, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y467)
= Exp(a + b × X467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1220 + 0.0006 × 679 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.7275)
= $113.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y467)
= Exp(a + b × X467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1220 + 0.0006 × 679 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.3749)
= $79.43

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1220 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(5.4513)
= $233.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1220 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(5.0988)
= $163.82

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.95% per annum.
  • FANG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $185.29 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 27, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024

a = 6.0097

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0363

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -15.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0363) – 1
= 15.62%

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0097 + -0.0004 × 1,584 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.3731)
= $215.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0097 + -0.0004 × 1,584 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.2280)
= $186.42

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0097 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.2657)
= $193.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0097 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.1206)
= $167.43

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.07% per annum.
  • FANG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.