Ovintiv Inc (OVV)
Ovintiv Inc., is dedicated to the exploration, development, production and commercialization of natural gas, petroleum and natural gas liquids. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.03% per annum.
- OVV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $45.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.87% per annum.
- OVV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.73 (6.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OVV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 1, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.8210
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1247) – 1
= 64.67%
February 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8210 + 0.0000 × 803 + 2 × 0.1247)
= Exp(4.0475)
= $57.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8210 + 0.0000 × 803 – 2 × 0.1247)
= Exp(3.5488)
= $34.77
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8210 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1247)
= Exp(4.0184)
= $55.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8210 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1247)
= Exp(3.5196)
= $33.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.03% per annum.
- OVV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $45.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.8129
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0468
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0468) – 1
= 20.58%
March 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8129 + -0.0012 × 1,573 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.0586)
= $57.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8129 + -0.0012 × 1,573 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.8714)
= $48.01
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8129 + -0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.7614)
= $43.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8129 + -0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.5742)
= $35.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.87% per annum.
- OVV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.73 (6.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.