SM Energy Co (SM)
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.47% per annum.
- SM price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $29.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.34 (1.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.50% per annum.
- SM price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2021
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 3.3688
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1622
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1622) – 1
= 91.30%
October 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3688 + 0.0002 × 547 + 2 × 0.1622)
= Exp(3.8011)
= $44.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3688 + 0.0002 × 547 – 2 × 0.1622)
= Exp(3.1524)
= $23.39
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3688 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1622)
= Exp(4.0534)
= $57.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3688 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1622)
= Exp(3.4047)
= $30.11
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.47% per annum.
- SM price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $29.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.34 (1.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 5.5001
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0791
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0791) – 1
= 37.21%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5001 + -0.0011 × 1,447 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(4.1003)
= $60.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5001 + -0.0011 × 1,447 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.7840)
= $43.99
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5001 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.6934)
= $40.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5001 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.3771)
= $29.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.50% per annum.
- SM price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.