Stock Price Trends

California Resources Corp (CRC)

California Resources Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the state of California. The company is headquartered in Santa Clarita, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.54% per annum.
  • CRC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $45.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.28% per annum.
  • CRC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 24, 2023
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 4.0475

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0664

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0664) – 1
= 30.41%

July 24, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 999 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0475 + -0.0001 × 999 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(4.0818)
= $59.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y686)
= Exp(a + b × X686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 999 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0475 + -0.0001 × 999 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(3.8163)
= $45.43

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0475 + -0.0001 × 1,616 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(4.0209)
= $55.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0475 + -0.0001 × 1,616 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(3.7554)
= $42.75

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.54% per annum.
  • CRC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $45.31 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 7.4059

b = -0.0023

s = 0.0444

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.44%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4059 + -0.0023 × 1,470 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.1630)
= $64.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4059 + -0.0023 × 1,470 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(3.9853)
= $53.80

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4059 + -0.0023 × 1,616 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(3.8321)
= $46.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4059 + -0.0023 × 1,616 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(3.6544)
= $38.64

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.28% per annum.
  • CRC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.