Civitas Resources Inc (CIVI)
Civitas Solutions, Inc. provides health and human services in the home and community to individuals who must care for individuals with intellectual, developmental, behavioral, and / or medically complex challenges in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.45% per annum.
- CIVI price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $34.28 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.73 (14.33%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.50% per annum.
- CIVI price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CIVI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2023
End date: February 26, 2025
a = 5.0779
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0907
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0907) – 1
= 43.75%
July 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0779 + -0.0007 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(4.4576)
= $86.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0779 + -0.0007 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(4.0947)
= $60.02
February 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0779 + -0.0007 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(4.0746)
= $58.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0779 + -0.0007 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(3.7117)
= $40.92
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.45% per annum.
- CIVI price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $34.28 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.73 (14.33%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 6.7924
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0850
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0850) – 1
= 40.47%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7924 + -0.0017 × 1,447 + 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(4.4824)
= $88.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7924 + -0.0017 × 1,447 – 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(4.1426)
= $62.97
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7924 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(3.8346)
= $46.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7924 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(3.4948)
= $32.94
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.50% per annum.
- CIVI price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.