Stock Price Trends

Nucor Corp (NUE)

Nucor Corporation is a producer of steel and related products based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.75% per annum.
  • NUE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $148.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.21% per annum.
  • NUE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NUE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 30, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 7.0542

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0496

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0496) – 1
= 21.97%

January 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0542 + -0.0012 × 1,531 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(5.3629)
= $213.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0542 + -0.0012 × 1,531 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(5.1643)
= $174.92

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0542 + -0.0012 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(5.0354)
= $153.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0542 + -0.0012 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.8369)
= $126.07

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.75% per annum.
  • NUE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $148.17 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 7, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.0580

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0359

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.42%

August 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0580 + 0.0005 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.0368)
= $153.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0580 + 0.0005 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.8933)
= $133.40

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0580 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.0921)
= $162.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0580 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.9487)
= $140.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.21% per annum.
  • NUE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.