Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. is a mining company. The company is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.66% per annum.
- AMR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $243.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.50 (0.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,296.11% per annum.
- AMR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 4, 2024
End date: November 15, 2024
a = 9.1761
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0823
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0823) – 1
= 38.96%
January 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1761 + -0.0021 × 1,505 + 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(6.1690)
= $477.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1761 + -0.0021 × 1,505 – 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(5.8399)
= $343.76
November 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1761 + -0.0021 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(5.5030)
= $245.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1761 + -0.0021 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(5.1740)
= $176.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.66% per annum.
- AMR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $243.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.50 (0.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -7.6747
b = 0.0072
s = 0.0325
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0072) – 1
= 1,296.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.87%
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.6747 + 0.0072 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(5.3622)
= $213.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.6747 + 0.0072 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(5.2323)
= $187.23
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.6747 + 0.0072 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(5.5789)
= $264.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.6747 + 0.0072 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(5.4490)
= $232.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,296.11% per annum.
- AMR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.