Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)
Carpenter Technology Corporation manufactures, manufactures and distributes specialty metals worldwide. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 297.16% per annum.
- CRS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $180.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.29% per annum.
- CRS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -1.6607
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0782
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 297.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0782) – 1
= 36.75%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6607 + 0.0038 × 1,517 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(4.2278)
= $68.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6607 + 0.0038 × 1,517 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(3.9148)
= $50.14
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6607 + 0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(5.3953)
= $220.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.6607 + 0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(5.0824)
= $161.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 297.16% per annum.
- CRS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $180.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 25, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.1542
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0438
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 122.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.14%
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1542 + 0.0022 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.9798)
= $145.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1542 + 0.0022 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.8046)
= $122.07
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1542 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.2380)
= $188.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1542 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.0628)
= $158.04
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.29% per annum.
- CRS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.