Stock Price Trends

Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)

Steel Dynamics, Inc., is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.69% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $127.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.21% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 4.2585

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0849

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0849) – 1
= 40.42%

October 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2585 + 0.0004 × 931 + 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.7555)
= $116.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2585 + 0.0004 × 931 – 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.4160)
= $82.76

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2585 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(5.0697)
= $159.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2585 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.7302)
= $113.32

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.69% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $127.36 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 5.0408

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0680

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0680) – 1
= 31.24%

February 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0408 + -0.0001 × 1,421 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(5.0092)
= $149.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0408 + -0.0001 × 1,421 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.7374)
= $114.13

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0408 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.9616)
= $142.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0408 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.6897)
= $108.82

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.21% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.