Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)
Steel Dynamics, Inc., is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.32% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of July 8, 2025 was $136.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.75% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of July 8, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: July 8, 2025
a = 4.3266
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0839
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0839) – 1
= 39.85%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3266 + 0.0003 × 834 + 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(4.7598)
= $116.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3266 + 0.0003 × 834 – 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(4.4244)
= $83.46
July 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3266 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(5.0752)
= $160.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3266 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0839)
= Exp(4.7397)
= $114.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.32% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of July 8, 2025 was $136.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: July 8, 2025
a = 4.9224
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0667
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0667) – 1
= 30.59%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9224 + 0.0000 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(4.9917)
= $147.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9224 + 0.0000 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(4.7247)
= $112.70
July 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9224 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(4.9674)
= $143.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9224 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(4.7005)
= $110.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.75% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of July 8, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.