Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)
Steel Dynamics, Inc., is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.71% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $124.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.25% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 4.2574
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0849
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0849) – 1
= 40.45%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y644)
= Exp(a + b × X644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2574 + 0.0004 × 932 + 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.7554)
= $116.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y644)
= Exp(a + b × X644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2574 + 0.0004 × 932 – 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.4157)
= $82.74
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2574 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(5.0698)
= $159.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2574 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.7301)
= $113.31
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.71% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $124.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 5.0428
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0681
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0681) – 1
= 31.30%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0428 + -0.0001 × 1,422 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(5.0096)
= $149.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0428 + -0.0001 × 1,422 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.7373)
= $114.12
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0428 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.9616)
= $142.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0428 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.6893)
= $108.78
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.25% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.