Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)
Steel Dynamics, Inc., is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.09% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $144.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 267.86% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.1425
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0852
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0852) – 1
= 40.59%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1425 + 0.0004 × 1,065 + 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(4.7481)
= $115.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1425 + 0.0004 × 1,065 – 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(4.4074)
= $82.06
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1425 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(5.0591)
= $157.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1425 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(4.7184)
= $111.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.09% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $144.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -1.5256
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0340
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 267.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0340) – 1
= 14.59%
September 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5256 + 0.0036 × 1,748 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.7804)
= $119.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5256 + 0.0036 × 1,748 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.6442)
= $103.98
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5256 + 0.0036 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(5.0587)
= $157.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5256 + 0.0036 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(4.9225)
= $137.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 267.86% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.