Stock Price Trends

Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)

Steel Dynamics, Inc., is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.71% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $124.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.25% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 4.2574

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0849

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0849) – 1
= 40.45%

October 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y644)
= Exp(a + b × X644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2574 + 0.0004 × 932 + 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.7554)
= $116.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y644)
= Exp(a + b × X644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2574 + 0.0004 × 932 – 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.4157)
= $82.74

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2574 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(5.0698)
= $159.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2574 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0849)
= Exp(4.7301)
= $113.31

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.71% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $124.00 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 5.0428

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0681

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0681) – 1
= 31.30%

February 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0428 + -0.0001 × 1,422 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(5.0096)
= $149.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0428 + -0.0001 × 1,422 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.7373)
= $114.12

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0428 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.9616)
= $142.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0428 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(4.6893)
= $108.78

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.25% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.