Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)
Steel Dynamics, Inc., is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.81% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $127.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.61% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 4.2927
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0866
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0866) – 1
= 41.37%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 907 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2927 + 0.0003 × 907 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.7653)
= $117.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 907 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2927 + 0.0003 × 907 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.4190)
= $83.02
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2927 + 0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(5.0677)
= $158.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2927 + 0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.7215)
= $112.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.81% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $127.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.0999
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0680
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0680) – 1
= 31.24%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0999 + -0.0002 × 1,397 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(5.0147)
= $150.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0999 + -0.0002 × 1,397 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.7429)
= $114.76
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0999 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.9473)
= $140.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0999 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.6754)
= $107.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.61% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.