Stock Price Trends

Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)

Steel Dynamics, Inc., is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.81% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $127.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.61% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 4.2927

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0866

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0866) – 1
= 41.37%

October 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 907 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2927 + 0.0003 × 907 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.7653)
= $117.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y628)
= Exp(a + b × X628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 907 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2927 + 0.0003 × 907 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.4190)
= $83.02

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2927 + 0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(5.0677)
= $158.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2927 + 0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.7215)
= $112.34

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.81% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $127.38 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 5.0999

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0680

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0680) – 1
= 31.24%

February 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0999 + -0.0002 × 1,397 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(5.0147)
= $150.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0999 + -0.0002 × 1,397 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.7429)
= $114.76

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0999 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.9473)
= $140.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0999 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.6754)
= $107.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.61% per annum.
  • STLD price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.