Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) is a leading producer and exporter of non-thermal metallurgical coal, primarily serving the global steel industry. Headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama, the company benefits from strategic access to key transportation infrastructure, enhancing its ability to deliver high-quality coal products to domestic and international markets. With a strong focus on operational excellence and sustainability, Warrior Met Coal is positioned to capitalize on the growing global demand for metallurgical coal, driven by the resurgence in steel production. As a significant player in the coal sector, the company is dedicated to maintaining its leadership through innovative practices and a commitment to environmental stewardship.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.68% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $64.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.63 (9.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 117.06% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2023
End date: August 6, 2025
a = 4.7123
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1060
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1060) – 1
= 52.83%
November 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7123 + -0.0005 × 1,122 + 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(4.4000)
= $81.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7123 + -0.0005 × 1,122 – 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(3.9759)
= $53.30
August 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7123 + -0.0005 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(4.1089)
= $60.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7123 + -0.0005 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(3.6847)
= $39.83
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.68% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $64.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.63 (9.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: October 24, 2025
a = 0.3108
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0626
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 117.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0626) – 1
= 28.46%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,620 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3108 + 0.0021 × 1,620 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(3.8758)
= $48.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,620 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3108 + 0.0021 × 1,620 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(3.6253)
= $37.54
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3108 + 0.0021 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.3089)
= $74.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3108 + 0.0021 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.0584)
= $57.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 117.06% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.