Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. The company is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.59% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $47.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.42% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.4899
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0863
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0863) – 1
= 41.23%
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4899 + -0.0008 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(4.4169)
= $82.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4899 + -0.0008 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(4.0716)
= $58.65
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4899 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(4.1171)
= $61.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4899 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(3.7719)
= $43.46
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.59% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $47.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 9.1184
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0535
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0535) – 1
= 23.84%
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1184 + -0.0029 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(4.3437)
= $76.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1184 + -0.0029 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(4.1298)
= $62.17
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1184 + -0.0029 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(3.9160)
= $50.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1184 + -0.0029 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(3.7022)
= $40.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.42% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.