Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. The company is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.69% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $69.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 234.54% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: November 4, 2024
a = 3.9609
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0766
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0766) – 1
= 35.84%
December 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9609 + 0.0001 × 1,459 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.2588)
= $70.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9609 + 0.0001 × 1,459 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.9525)
= $52.07
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9609 + 0.0001 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.2924)
= $73.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9609 + 0.0001 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.9862)
= $53.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.69% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $69.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024
a = -1.7558
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0496
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 234.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0496) – 1
= 21.95%
September 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7558 + 0.0033 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.0869)
= $59.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7558 + 0.0033 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.8884)
= $48.83
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7558 + 0.0033 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.3846)
= $80.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7558 + 0.0033 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.1862)
= $65.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 234.54% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.