Commercial Metals Company (CMC)
Commercial Metals Company manufactures, recycles, and manufactures steel and metal products and related materials and services in the United States, Poland, China, Germany, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.16% per annum.
- CMC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $59.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.11% per annum.
- CMC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 3.6093
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0796
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0796) – 1
= 37.49%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6093 + 0.0002 × 1,065 + 2 × 0.0796)
= Exp(3.9973)
= $54.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6093 + 0.0002 × 1,065 – 2 × 0.0796)
= Exp(3.6789)
= $39.60
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6093 + 0.0002 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0796)
= Exp(4.1575)
= $63.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6093 + 0.0002 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0796)
= Exp(3.8392)
= $46.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.16% per annum.
- CMC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $59.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.0616
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0675
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0675) – 1
= 30.97%
October 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,411 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0616 + 0.0005 × 1,411 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.9689)
= $52.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,411 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0616 + 0.0005 × 1,411 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.6991)
= $40.41
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0616 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.1960)
= $66.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0616 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.9262)
= $50.71
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.11% per annum.
- CMC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.