United States Steel Corporation (X)
United States Steel Corporation produces and sells tubular and flat rolled steel products primarily in North America and Europe. The company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.73% per annum.
- X price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $38.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.42 (31.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.69% per annum.
- X price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of X price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 18, 2023
End date: June 27, 2024
a = 6.6386
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0432
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0432) – 1
= 18.88%
December 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,489 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6386 + -0.0018 × 1,489 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(4.0000)
= $54.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,489 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6386 + -0.0018 × 1,489 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.8271)
= $45.93
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6386 + -0.0018 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.6486)
= $38.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6386 + -0.0018 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.4757)
= $32.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.73% per annum.
- X price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $38.89 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.42 (31.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.9617
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0595
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0595) – 1
= 26.86%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9617 + -0.0002 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(3.7817)
= $43.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9617 + -0.0002 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(3.5438)
= $34.60
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9617 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(3.7341)
= $41.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9617 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(3.4962)
= $32.99
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.69% per annum.
- X price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.