Metallus Inc (MTUS)
Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.71% per annum.
- MTUS price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $15.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.65 (14.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.07% per annum.
- MTUS price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2021
End date: August 30, 2024
a = 2.4752
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1207
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1207) – 1
= 62.06%
May 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y415)
= Exp(a + b × X415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4752 + 0.0004 × 602 + 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(2.9285)
= $18.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y415)
= Exp(a + b × X415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4752 + 0.0004 × 602 – 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(2.4457)
= $11.54
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4752 + 0.0004 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(3.3562)
= $28.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4752 + 0.0004 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(2.8734)
= $17.70
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.71% per annum.
- MTUS price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $15.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.65 (14.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 18.8526
b = -0.0089
s = 0.0486
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0089) – 1
= -96.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0486) – 1
= 21.45%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.8526 + -0.0089 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(3.2413)
= $25.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.8526 + -0.0089 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(3.0470)
= $21.05
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.8526 + -0.0089 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(2.7804)
= $16.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.8526 + -0.0089 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(2.5860)
= $13.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.07% per annum.
- MTUS price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.