Stock Price Trends

Metallus, Inc (MTUS)

Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.29% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $15.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 129.37% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 29, 2023
End date: June 26, 2025

a = 4.1066

b = -0.0008

s = 0.1025

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1025) – 1
= 50.70%

June 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1066 + -0.0008 × 1,093 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(3.3980)
= $29.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1066 + -0.0008 × 1,093 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(2.9879)
= $19.84

June 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1066 + -0.0008 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(2.7895)
= $16.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1066 + -0.0008 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(2.3794)
= $10.80

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.29% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $15.41 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: June 30, 2025

a = -1.4634

b = 0.0023

s = 0.0401

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 129.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0401) – 1
= 17.39%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4634 + 0.0023 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(2.5674)
= $13.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4634 + 0.0023 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(2.4070)
= $11.10

June 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4634 + 0.0023 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(2.7676)
= $15.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4634 + 0.0023 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(2.6072)
= $13.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 129.37% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.