Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK)
Chesapeake Energy Corporation is engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of properties for the production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) from underground reservoirs in the United States. The company is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.28% per annum.
- CHK price at the close of October 1, 2024 was $81.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.78% per annum.
- CHK price at the close of October 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.01 (2.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 24, 2022
End date: October 1, 2024
a = 4.4240
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0794
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0794) – 1
= 37.37%
March 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4240 + 0.0000 × 407 + 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.5684)
= $96.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4240 + 0.0000 × 407 – 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.2509)
= $70.17
October 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4240 + 0.0000 × 1,329 + 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.5359)
= $93.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4240 + 0.0000 × 1,329 – 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.2184)
= $67.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.28% per annum.
- CHK price at the close of October 1, 2024 was $81.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2024
End date: October 1, 2024
a = 5.9520
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0464
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -36.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.39%
March 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9520 + -0.0013 × 1,142 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.6101)
= $100.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9520 + -0.0013 × 1,142 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.4245)
= $83.47
October 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9520 + -0.0013 × 1,329 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.3752)
= $79.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9520 + -0.0013 × 1,329 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.1896)
= $66.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.78% per annum.
- CHK price at the close of October 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.01 (2.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.