US Physicalrapy Inc (USPH)
US Physical Therapy, Inc. operates outpatient physical therapy clinics that provide preoperative and postoperative care and treatment for orthopedic-related disorders, sports-related injuries, preventive care, injured worker rehabilitation, and neurology-related injuries. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.33% per annum.
- USPH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $94.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.61 (12.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.47% per annum.
- USPH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of USPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 6.6918
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0353
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0353) – 1
= 15.15%
February 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6918 + -0.0013 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(4.7636)
= $117.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6918 + -0.0013 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(4.6225)
= $101.75
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6918 + -0.0013 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(4.4435)
= $85.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6918 + -0.0013 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(4.3024)
= $73.88
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.33% per annum.
- USPH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $94.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.61 (12.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 14, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.2483
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0450
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.72%
August 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2483 + 0.0007 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.4874)
= $88.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2483 + 0.0007 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.3074)
= $74.25
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2483 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.5526)
= $94.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2483 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.3726)
= $79.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.47% per annum.
- USPH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.